Flatten which curve?

Nearly ten weeks have passed since the Washington Post shared the outstanding simulation illustrating the spread of a virus in a population.   Nearly all of us have at least heard the phrase:  "Flatten the Curve".   It's even a hashtag now, which we'll use: #FlattenTheCurve.

Collective behavior over Memorial Day Weekend in the USA suggests that millions of US citizens never got the memo.

Perhaps it's because there is a great deal of data, and there are multiple "curves" being shown by the media (and researchers).   This is inevitable when discussing non-trivial physical, biological, economic, or social phenomena.

We use plots to represent not only the total number of infections documented to date (positive tests, total), but the CURRENT number of active infections (original curve to be flattened in the simulation and in multiple other graphs), the daily count of new cases, the daily death count, and the total cumulative death count.

The total number of infections would flatten all by itself: no social distancing, no mitigation.   It would flatten because the world has a limited population.  Sooner or later, the virus will run out of people to infect.   The *WRONG* curve will flatten, after our health systems have collapsed and the economy is damaged almost beyond repair.

NEW CASES or ACTIVE CASES or even FATALITIES:  those are curves we want to flatten at the lowest possible level. 

Why does it matter, if "we already had and passed our peak", if hundreds of people crowd into small spaces with no personal protective equipment? 

Any flattening obtained to date can lead to either (a) the desired result, with the number of active cases continuing to decrease and eventually approach zero; or (b) a disastrous resurgence of exponential increase in new cases - and deaths.

Option (b) has always been lurking in the shadows.   Not even the most pessimistic reports would suggest that more than 2 or 3% of the US population has been infected with the novel coronovirus.   Even if that number were 10%, we would still have THREE HUNDRED MILLION vulnerable humans.   Individuals who will catch the virus and develop COVID-19 if exposure results in a sufficient viral load to be transferred.

Now is not the time to allow math anxiety to trigger disregard for what experts keep telling us.   New infections could spike dozens of times if we continue to change our behavior.   Just hiccups in the rate of increase of total cumulative infections if our healthcare system collapses and we proceed to march towards that situation where, within a year, every american has either survived COVID-19 or died from it.

Don't become a statistic - a new infection. #FlattenTheCurve.  The right one.

Why bother wearing cloth masks?

In a recent online discussion about home-made cloth masks for Health Care workers, somebody asked  "Why do they (nurses) bother wearing them?  I thought the masks won't protect them." 

My response:  Here's another way of thinking of it.   In healthcare locations we have a situation that is comparable to neighborhood parks, streets, and certainly supermarkets.   Many people moving around in a limited space.  More opportunities for droplets generated by speaking (yes!), coughing or sneezing to get INHALED by another person - the primary contagion mechanism.   More opportunities for droplets landing on surfaces where somebody will touch them (or the dried residue) and get "material" on their hands or gloves.   

Wearing masks in non-COVID19 areas of a hospital, including receptionists or folks working at a desk, helps reduce the likelihood of workplace contagion.    That's why authorities have finally agreed on having everybody wear cloth masks (speaking now of non HC workers, the general population).   

I don't believe I have COVID-19, but I do not know.  

I could have it and be in the pre-symptom incubation period.  Maybe I have the disease, but am asymptomatic.   Regardless of having COVID-19, if I am out  in public and "innocently sneeze" as so many of us have done all our lives - long before COVID19, I don't want people near me to freak out.  

Or if I cough a bit, as so many of us have done all our lives when our throats are dry or we have a very minor cold...   same thing:  I don't want people near me to feel unnecessarily anxious.    Sorry if I'm adding to the broken-record  chorus - thousands repeating this.   It's useful:  humans typically need five or six encounters with a new concept in order to really learn them.   

WIDESPREAD USE OF CLOTH MASKS BY HEALTHY CITIZENS AND WORKERS HELPS BEND THE CURVE; SLOW THE SPREAD OF COVID-19; REDUCE NEW INFECTIONS... BY REDUCING THE NUMBER OF DROPLETS BLASTED OR BLOWN INTO THE AIR.

So actually, nurses in  hospitals (and the rest of us) DO protect ourselves by wearing cloth masks.  We're part of a collective effort to slow the spread of the disease.   Reduce overburdening of the hospital where that nurse works.   Reduce the likelihood that she'll have to work extra hours or lose her day off because of another hospital employee getting infected.   

I don't know about the rest of you, but I feel a bit silly wearing a cloth mask in public, while walking in my neighborhood or grocery shopping.   And when I see somebody NOT wearing a mask, I have mixed feelings:  "I'm really hyper about this" mixed with "that person really should be wearing a mask".   It's like halloween or a costume party.   We're less self-conscious if most of us are... wearing masks!

It's the right thing to do. 

=====================
For information and guidelines from the authorities:

CDC resources: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
CDC page on "cloth face covers" - includes lots of useful "DIY (do it yourself)" suggestions.  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/diy-cloth-face-coverings.html

WHO https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

(Center for Disease Control and World Health Organization, respectively)

Glass Half Empty, Exponential Growth, COVID-19, Social Distancing

Glass Half Empty:  Exponential Growth 

COVID-19, Social Distancing

This post is motivated by controversy over the wisdom of implementing social distancing and "shelter in place" early in the COVID19 outbreak.  There is an economic impact, and my family and I have felt it.  There are other forms of hardship caused by these precautions.  Why bother when total cases are still relatively low?   The illustration is adapted from a discussion about exponential growth in Geoffrey West's fabulous book called "Scale". 

Glasses representing time-lapse of exponential growth at 0, 50, 60, and 61 seconds.

Snapshots at Zero, Two, Fifty, and Sixty Seconds
These four glasses, with a small bit of imagination, can be viewed as snapshots of a single glass containing a magical liquid that doubles in volume with each passing second.   By starting with just the right amount, it's possible to arrive at the GLASS HALF FULL situation exactly one minute - to the second - after the process begins.   

What does this have to do with COVID-19?
The analogy to COVID-19 cases (or deaths) is important.  Many of you can verify for yourselves using a spreadsheet that after 50 seconds, the second glass is still what you see.  If the liquid is doubling in volume EVERY SECOND, and only reaches the halfway mark after 60 seconds, then you must start with such a small fraction that even after fifty doublings in volume, it's still not visible to the naked eye.  However, moments after the 50s mark, you'll see a layer in the bottom of the glass.  At exactly 60 seconds, you'll have half a glass of magical green liquid.   THE FULL GLASS IS WHAT YOU HAVE JUST ONE SECOND LATER.   

Social Distancing matters - especially while "glass is apparently empty"
Even if you can get the "doubling rate" to slow from 1 second to 3 or 4, you're clearly STILL going to have a lots of green liquid after a few minutes. 

Even though Washington State has decreased the doubling rate from 3 days to 4 or 5, the number of patients and deaths is still skyrocketing.

While you have a few dozen cases, it's like an empty glass 20 or 30 seconds into that process.  If you wait until you have a half-full glass, it's too late for social-distancing to help.  You'll have a flooded kitchen within seconds.  Overwhelmed hospitals within weeks.

Stringent measures are required to avoid those overwhelmed hospitals.  "The Cure" some have been discussing is not a cure at all.  It's an effort to buy time.  Toss it out, and we'll face the fury of an exponential explosion of COVID-19 cases.   That's the big difference between this disease and so many others - or deaths by car accident.   THIS cause of death  is increasing exponentially, the others (such as Dengue in Brazil) is not. 

So what about flattening the curve?  What about a plateau? 
Exponential growth of pandemic cases cannot continue forever.   After a few tens of doubling cycles, you'd have infected the entire planet.   The reality is that once enough people are infected (then either recovered and immune - most cases - or deceased), growth slows down.   The USA, however, has over 300 Million inhabitants.   We've gone from 15 to 60,000 cases, from 1 to over 1,000 deaths in just a handful of weeks.   Unless SOMETHING is done, the plateau will be a sharp peak, not a gentle and broad bump that remains lower than a dashed line indicating the capacity of our health system. 

Twitter Widget - Embedded in a Blog Post

Trick of the Day

You may have noticed that sometimes a website will contain a list of tweets about a certain topic, or from a certain user.   This is easily introduced into your Blog or Website using Twitter's online "Widget Tool".

Look at how nicely it works for our #MMM61 hashtag.
Pretty cool, I think.   But then again I'm easily entertained, and rather biased.

#MMM61 Tweets
         

It Takes a Village

It Takes a Village: 

Uma Andorinha Não Faz Verão

Worldwide, many thousands of researchers and engineers devote themselves to "Magnetism and Magnetic Materials".   At this time I'd estimate a lower bound on "magneticians who use Twitter" at 200.   I'd guess that the vast majority of those occasionally tweet about their work.  I've seen many tweets from conferences, but others announcing a newly published paper or sharing information about some event or happening that matters to us.

As magneticians, let's seek inspiration in Ferromagnetism:  a cooperative phenomena that is breath-taking when comprehended.

A handful of  Twitter-users will not have much impact on MMM61 -- or on the future of the conference, much less the overall demographics magnetism-related activity.

To coin yet another phrase illustrating the importance of cooperation, "one spin does not a ferromagnet make".   Feel free to create and tweet a better one.

Call to Action   (casual crowd-sourcing?) 
Choose one or more of the following multi-step items:
A) Recruit Veterans:

1. Identify one or two fellow magneticians who use Twitter.  
2. Follow them on Twitter
3. Invite them to follow @MagnetismOrg
4. Repeat 

B) Recruit Newbies: 

1. Identify a magnetician who you believe is susceptible (no pun intended)
2. Show them the sort of stories, facts, figures, images available to us via Twitter
3. Show them that even before setting up an account, they can follow thousands of topics of interest on Twitter, including the world of Magnetism and Magnetic Materials
4. Coach them through setting up an account and setting up a list of sources to follow, including @MagnetismOrg
5. Repeat

C) Identify low-hanging fruit for (A) -- good choice if you are, shall we say, shy.

1. Think of magneticians who might possibly already be Twitter users, possibly referring to current journals or to past conference proceedings
2. Attempt to locate them on Twitter
3. If you find them, tell us (@MagnetismOrg admins) about it.

D) Contribute to discussions about Social Media and Science (MMM or otherwise)

1. Share your thoughts on what can be accomplished with Twitter and other Social Media channels
2. Share your observations on how existing users are already illustrating (1)
3. Get specific:  for the MMM conference series, what are some unique contributions to be made by users of Social Media?

FaceBook for Scientists? (discussion opener)

Educated and employed as a scientist, you have a Facebook page.   You probably use it primarily for interactions with friends and family.  You share photos, videos.   Maybe you post silly remarks, or perhaps others tease you by posting remarks or photos that are not flattering to you.  It's your FB page, for crying out loud, not a professional journal.   So what does it have to do with your identity as a Scientist?    And if you come out of the closet as being a Chemist, Mathematician (yes, I call them Scientists too), Materials Scientist, Astronomer, Biologist...   are there any recommendations for how to achieve maximum benefit to the World and to your Career while limiting possible embarrassment vis-a-vis your hardcore Science friends?   Is this discussion significantly different from a more general discussion of Social Media vs. Career/Work for any random profession?

This is a blog entry, so much of the value (ideally!) will come from remarks added by you, the reader.
It's also just one of many entries I'll offer on this subject.   Let's start with some basic suggestions and concerns.   Then we'll build on it.

1. Audience awareness.  On FB, we tend to address remarks to widely differing groups of people. And unlike Twitter, FB allows us to carefully control the visibility of each post.
2. Forums, groups, pages:  They abound.   Many target professionals (scientists or otherwise)  of a particular area, but are open to the general public.    Learn about these resources, learn from them, and contribute your thoughts, ideas to (yes!) help make the World a Better Place -- and maybe  advance your career in the process.
3. Friending:  Policy, philosophy, ethics.   Not all users who join a discussion in forum will want to immediately accept "add as a friend" requests.   Formulate your own policy, and be prepared to communicate a "No" when necessary - politely.   If you are liberal with your  "friending" habits, do not be offended if somebody else ignores or refuses your request to be their "friend".  Remember... there's always LinkedIn.  Of course even there, many users prefer to restrict their formal "contacts". 
4. Profile:  if nothing else about your profile is public, then at least the material you list here should be screened and evaluated for acceptability and impact when people follow the link from your remark in a forum to your page.   
5. Potential:  Here's where I believe FB and Twitter truly have a great deal to offer to our profession.  Lower the "potential barrier" between those inside the ivory towers or corporate research centers and 'regular citizens'.   Be mindful of confidentiality and IP ownership issues, but engage The World in ways that make it easier for the general public - citizens, voters, and taxpayers! -- to appreciate what we do.   Attract more youngsters into careers in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math.  Ensure their expectations are better matched to reality once they arrive.   And last but not least, consider the possibility of involving science enthusiasts of all walks of life and all portions of the planet in generating new scientific knowledge, insight into The Awesome World. 

More some other time.   I'm heading out the door for an early-morning run.  By the way:  if you've come across (or written) material similar to what I am posting, share it  with us!   The more, the merrier.

Apology for accidental re-tweet

Learning about the hazzard of maintaining two Twitter identities.

To followers of the #MMM61 Twitter account:       please excuse me for retweet shared from @MagnetismOrg yesterday.   It has no connection to the conference nor to topics directly related to the conference.

Published by the New York Times, it's very interesting collection  of valuable data on a contemporary dilemma faced by citizens of the United States.    I did not realize my device was "pointed" at the MagnetismOrg accouont when I hit the "ReTweet".

Am grateful to have learned that the corresponding "button" in twitter essentially toggles a retweet on and off: no major difficulty removing the item from the profile.

- Daniel Lottis
  (Supporting 2016 MMM  as Social Media Coordinator)